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Spatiotemporal assessment of farm-gate production costs and economic potential of Miscanthus × giganteus , Panicum virgatum L., and Jatropha grown on marginal land in China.
- Source :
-
Global change biology. Bioenergy [Glob Change Biol Bioenergy] 2020 May; Vol. 12 (5), pp. 310-327. Date of Electronic Publication: 2020 Mar 06. - Publication Year :
- 2020
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Abstract
- Spatially explicit farm-gate production costs and the economic potential of three types of energy crops grown on available marginal land in China for 2017 and 2040 were investigated using a spatial accounting method and construction of cost-supply curves. The average farm-gate cost from all available marginal land was calculated as 32.9 CNY/GJ for Miscanthus Mode, 27.5 CNY/GJ for Switchgrass Mode, 32.4 CNY/GJ for Miscanthus & Switchgrass Mode, and 909 CNY/GJ for Jatropha Mode in 2017. The costs of Miscanthus and switchgrass were predicted to decrease by approximately 11%-15%, whereas the cost of Jatropha was expected to increase by 5% in 2040. The cost of Jatropha varies significantly from 193 to 9,477 CNY/GJ across regions because of the huge differences in yield across regions. The economic potential of the marginal land was calculated as 28.7 EJ/year at a cost of less than 25 CNY/GJ for Miscanthus Mode, 4.0 EJ/year at a cost of less than 30 CNY/GJ for Switchgrass Mode, 29.6 EJ/year at a cost of less than 25 CNY/GJ for Miscanthus & Switchgrass Mode, and 0.1 EJ/year at a cost of less than 500 CNY/GJ for Jatropha Mode in 2017. It is not feasible to develop Jatropha production on marginal land based on existing technologies, given its high production costs. Therefore, the Miscanthus & Switchgrass Mode is the most economical way, because it achieves the highest economic potential compared with other modes. The sensitivity analysis showed that the farm-gate costs of Miscanthus and switchgrass are most sensitive to uncertainties associated with yield reduction and harvesting costs, while, for Jatropha , the unpredictable yield has the greatest impact on its farm-gate cost. This study can help policymakers and industrial stakeholders make strategic and tactical bioenergy development plans in China (exchange rate in 2017: 1€ = 7.63¥; all the joules in this paper are higher heat value).<br /> (© 2019 The Authors. GCB Bioenergy published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 1757-1693
- Volume :
- 12
- Issue :
- 5
- Database :
- MEDLINE
- Journal :
- Global change biology. Bioenergy
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 32421018
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1111/gcbb.12664