Estimation of Fractional Extracellular Space at CT for Predicting Chemotherapy Response and Survival in Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma.

OBJECTIVE. The purpose of this study was to investigate the association between primary pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma fractional extracellular space (fECS) estimated from pretreatment CT and tumor response to chemotherapy and patient outcome. MATERIALS AND METHODS. A database search identified the records of patients with locally advanced or metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma treated with systemic therapies who had undergone pretreatment CT that included both unenhanced and equilibrium phase images. An ROI was placed on the primary tumor and aorta, and the tumor fECS was calculated as follows: (tumor attenuation in the equilibrium phase - tumor attenuation in the unenhanced phase) / (aortic attenuation in the equilibrium phase - aortic attenuation in the unenhanced phase) × (1 - hematocrit). Response to therapy was assessed in subsequent CT examinations according to the Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors version 1.1. Relevant clinical variables, including carbohydrate antigen 19-9 level, chemotherapy regimen, and survival were recorded. Multivariate analyses were performed to determine the predictors of treatment response and patient survival. RESULTS. The median primary tumor fECS was 0.41 (range, 0.02-0.69). When dichotomized to high (> 0.41) versus low fECS (≤ 0.41) values, a larger proportion of patients with high tumor fECS values achieved disease control after chemotherapy than did those with low tumor fECS values: full cohort, 27 of 30 versus 19 of 30 ( p = 0.030); cohort with locally advanced disease, 23 of 24 versus 10 of 15 ( p = 0.024). The mean progression-free survival among patients with high primary tumor fECS values was significantly longer than that among those with low fECS values (191 versus 115 days, p = < 0.0001). Primary tumor fECS was an independent predictor of progression-free survival ( p = 0.003) in multivariate analysis. CONCLUSION. High primary tumor fECS value estimated from staging CT was associated with chemotherapy response and progression-free survival of patients with advanced pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.