The Paradoxical Effects of Hurricane Katrina on Births and Adverse Birth Outcomes.

Objectives. To review the trends in pregnancy outcomes after Hurricane Katrina and assess effects of the disaster on research and public health related to pregnant women. Methods. We reexamined the 2004-2006 vital statistics data from Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi, assessing what the risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes in the population would have been under varying risk scenarios. Results. We saw a reduction in number of births as well as in low birth weight and preterm birth. If the number of births had stayed constant and the relative higher risk in the "missing" births had been between 17% and 100%, the storm would have been associated with an increased risk instead of a decrease. Because the relative decline in births was larger in Black women, the higher risk in the "missing" births required to create a significant increase associated with the storm was generally not as great as for White women. Conclusions. Higher exposure to Katrina may have produced a reduction in births among high-risk women in the region rather than increasing adverse outcomes among those who did give birth.