[Predictive factors of pathological complete response after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy for middle-low rectal cancer].

Objective: To explore the predictive factors of pathological complete response (pCR) after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy for middle-low rectal cancer. Methods: A case-control study was conducted. The inclusion criteria were as follows: (1) colonoscopy, digital examination or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) showed a distance from the lower edge of the tumor to the dentate line of no more than 10 cm; (2) complete clinicopathological data were available; (3) preoperative biopsy revealed adenocarcinoma; (4) preoperative pelvic MRI or endorectal ultrasonography was performed; (5) no distant metastasis was found. Exclusion criteria: (1) preoperative radiotherapy and chemotherapy were not administrated according to the standard; (2) simultaneous multiple primary cancer and familial adenomatous polyposis were observed. According to the above criteria, clinicopathological data of 245 patients with middle-low rectal cancer undergoing preoperative neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in Changhai Hospital of Navy Medical University from January 2012 to December 2019 were retrospectively collected. Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic analysis were used to identify the clinical factors predicting pCR. pCR is defined as complete disappearance of cancer cells under the microscope in cancer specimens (including lymph nodes) after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy. Results: A total of 72 patients with pCR were enrolled in this study. Univariate analysis showed that preoperative T stage, tumor circumference, tumor morphology, carbohydrate antigen (CA) 19-9, interval between the end of neoadjuvant therapy and operation were associated with pCR (all P <0.05). The above 5 variables were included in multivariate logistic analysis and the results revealed that the T stage (OR=5.743, 95% CI: 2.416-13.648, P <0.001), tumor circumference (OR=7.754, 95% CI: 3.822-15.733, P <0.001), tumor morphology (OR=0.264, 95% CI: 0.089-0.786, P =0.017) and the interval between the end of neoadjuvant therapy and operation (OR=0.303, 95% CI: 0.147-0.625, P =0.001) were independent predictive factors of pCR, while CA 19-9 level was not an independent factor (OR=1.873, 95% CI:0.372-9.436, P =0.447). Conclusion: By knowing the clinical features of preoperative T stage, tumor circumference, tumor morphology and the interval between neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and operation, patients with higher likelyhood of pCR after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy may be identified.