Predicting reoperation after operative treatment of proximal humerus fractures.

Purpose: The current understanding of the factors associated with a second surgery or loss of alignment after operative treatment of a proximal humerus fracture has relied on small sample studies with stepwise regression analysis. In this study, we used a powerful regression analysis over a large sample and with many variables to test the null hypothesis that there are no factors associated with a revision surgery or loss of alignment after operative treatment of proximal humerus fractures.
Methods: A retrospective review of all surgically treated proximal humerus fractures from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2015, was performed at a tertiary level hospital. We extracted longitudinal medical records for all patients, and the data were organized into two categories of predictors: fracture/operative characteristics and patient characteristics.
Results: During the study period, 423 patients met the inclusion criteria. Three hundred and fourteen of the fractures underwent Open Reduction Internal Fixation (ORIF) and 109 underwent Hemiarthroplasty. Thirty-three patients underwent revision surgery (8%). Seventy-nine patients treated with ORIF had loss of alignment (25%). Across the entire cohort, the least absolute shrinkage selection operator (LASSO) analysis found that patients between 40 and 60 years of age had a higher odds of revision surgery (OR = 1.6). In patients treated with ORIF, the LASSO regression found an unreduced calcar to be the strongest predictor of loss of alignment (OR = 5.5), followed by osteoporosis (OR = 1.3), prior radiation treatment (OR = 1.3), unreduced greater tuberosity (OR = 1.2) and age over 80 years (OR = 1.2).
Conclusion: Reoperation after proximal humerus surgery is infrequent even though loss of alignment is common. In our cohort, not all patients who had a loss of alignment underwent revision surgery; consequently, obtaining the best possible reduction at the index surgery is paramount.
(© 2021. This is a U.S. government work and not under copyright protection in the U.S.; foreign copyright protection may apply.)