Development of Brain Metastases in Patients With Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer and No Brain Metastases at Initial Staging Evaluation: Cumulative Incidence and Risk Factor Analysis.

BACKGROUND. Although established guidelines give indications for performing staging brain MRI at initial diagnosis of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), guidelines are lacking for performing surveillance brain MRI for patients without brain metastases at presentation. OBJECTIVE. The purpose of this study is to estimate the cumulative incidence of and risk factors for brain metastasis development in patients with NSCLC without brain metastases at initial presentation. METHODS. This retrospective study included 1495 patients with NSCLC (mean [± SD] age, 65 ± 10 years; 920 men and 575 women) without brain metastases at initial evaluation that included brain MRI. Follow-up brain MRI was ordered at the discretion of the referring physicians. MRI examinations were reviewed in combination with clinical records for brain metastasis development; patients not undergoing MRI were deemed to have not had metastases develop through last clinical follow-up. The cumulative incidence of brain metastases was determined, with death considered a competing risk, and was stratified by clinical stage group, cell type, and epidermal growth factor receptor ( EGFR ) gene mutation status. Univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were performed. RESULTS. A total of 258 of 1495 patients (17.3%) underwent follow-up brain MRI, and 72 (4.8%) had brain metastases develop at a median of 12.3 months after initial diagnosis of NSCLC. Of the 72 patients who had metastases develop, 44.4% had no neurologic symptoms, and 58.3% had stable primary thoracic disease. The cumulative incidence of brain metastases at 6, 12, 18, and 24 months after initial evaluation was 0.6%, 2.1%, 4.2%, and 6.8%, respectively. Cumulative incidence at 6, 12, 18, and 24 months was higher ( p < .001) in patients with clinical stage III-IV disease (1.3%, 3.9%, 7.7%, and 10.9%, respectively) than in those with clinical stage I-II disease (0.0%, 0.8%, 1.2%, and 2.6%, respectively), and it was higher ( p < .001) in patients with EGFR mutation-positive adenocarcinoma (0.7%, 2.5%, 6.3%, and 12.3%, respectively) than in those with EGFR mutation-negative adenocarcinoma (0.4%, 1.8%, 2.9%, and 4.4%, respectively). Among 1109 patients with adenocarcinoma, independent risk factors for the development of brain metastasis were clinical stage III-IV (hazard ratio [HR], 9.39; p < .001) and EGFR mutation-positive status (HR, 1.78; p = .04). The incidence of brain metastasis over the study interval was 8.7% among patients with clinical stage III-IV disease and 17.4% among those with EGFR mutation-positive adenocarcinoma. CONCLUSION. Clinical stage III-IV and EGFR mutation-positive adenocarcinoma are independent risk factors for brain metastasis development. CLINICAL IMPACT. For patients with clinical stage III-IV disease or EGFR mutation-positive adenocarcinoma, surveillance brain MRI performed 12 months after initial evaluation may be warranted.