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Mechanistic modelling of COVID-19 and the impact of lockdowns on a short-time scale.
- Source :
-
PloS one [PLoS One] 2021 Oct 18; Vol. 16 (10), pp. e0258084. Date of Electronic Publication: 2021 Oct 18 (Print Publication: 2021). - Publication Year :
- 2021
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Abstract
- Background: To mitigate the spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus, some countries have adopted more stringent non-pharmaceutical interventions in contrast to those widely used. In addition to standard practices such as enforcing curfews, social distancing, and closure of non-essential service industries, other non-conventional policies also have been implemented, such as the total lockdown of fragmented regions, which are composed of sparsely and highly populated areas.<br />Methods: In this paper, we model the movement of a host population using a mechanistic approach based on random walks, which are either diffusive or super-diffusive. Infections are realised through a contact process, whereby a susceptible host is infected if in close spatial proximity of the infectious host with an assigned transmission probability. Our focus is on a short-time scale (∼ 3 days), which is the average time lag time before an infected individual becomes infectious.<br />Results: We find that the level of infection remains approximately constant with an increase in population diffusion, and also in the case of faster population dispersal (super-diffusion). Moreover, we demonstrate how the efficacy of imposing a lockdown depends heavily on how susceptible and infectious individuals are distributed over space.<br />Conclusion: Our results indicate that on a short-time scale, the type of movement behaviour does not play an important role in rising infection levels. Also, lock-down restrictions are ineffective if the population distribution is homogeneous. However, in the case of a heterogeneous population, lockdowns are effective if a large proportion of infectious carriers are distributed in sparsely populated sub-regions.<br />Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 1932-6203
- Volume :
- 16
- Issue :
- 10
- Database :
- MEDLINE
- Journal :
- PloS one
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 34662346
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0258084