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Mathematical Modelling of COVID-19 Transmission in Kenya: A Model with Reinfection Transmission Mechanism.
- Source :
-
Computational and mathematical methods in medicine [Comput Math Methods Med] 2021 Oct 16; Vol. 2021, pp. 5384481. Date of Electronic Publication: 2021 Oct 16 (Print Publication: 2021). - Publication Year :
- 2021
-
Abstract
- In this study we propose a Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) mathematical model that stratifies infectious subpopulations into: infectious asymptomatic individuals, symptomatic infectious individuals who manifest mild symptoms and symptomatic individuals with severe symptoms. In light of the recent revelation that reinfection by COVID-19 is possible, the proposed model attempt to investigate how reinfection with COVID-19 will alter the future dynamics of the recent unfolding pandemic. Fitting the mathematical model on the Kenya COVID-19 dataset, model parameter values were obtained and used to conduct numerical simulations. Numerical results suggest that reinfection of recovered individuals who have lost their protective immunity will create a large pool of asymptomatic infectious individuals which will ultimately increase symptomatic individuals with mild symptoms and symptomatic individuals with severe symptoms (critically ill) needing urgent medical attention. The model suggests that reinfection with COVID-19 will lead to an increase in cumulative reported deaths. Comparison of the impact of non pharmaceutical interventions on curbing COVID19 proliferation suggests that wearing face masks profoundly reduce COVID-19 prevalence than maintaining social/physical distance. Further, numerical findings reveal that increasing detection rate of asymptomatic cases via contact tracing, testing and isolating them can drastically reduce COVID-19 surge, in particular individuals who are critically ill and require admission into intensive care.<br />Competing Interests: The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest regarding the publication of this paper.<br /> (Copyright © 2021 Isaac Mwangi Wangari et al.)
- Subjects :
- Asymptomatic Infections epidemiology
COVID-19 epidemiology
COVID-19 prevention & control
Computational Biology
Computer Simulation
Contact Tracing
Databases, Factual
Disease Susceptibility
Humans
Kenya epidemiology
Masks
Physical Distancing
Reinfection epidemiology
Reinfection transmission
COVID-19 transmission
Models, Biological
Pandemics prevention & control
Pandemics statistics & numerical data
SARS-CoV-2 immunology
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 1748-6718
- Volume :
- 2021
- Database :
- MEDLINE
- Journal :
- Computational and mathematical methods in medicine
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 34777563
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/5384481