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Reducing livestock snow disaster risk in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau due to warming and socioeconomic development.
- Source :
-
The Science of the total environment [Sci Total Environ] 2022 Mar 20; Vol. 813, pp. 151869. Date of Electronic Publication: 2021 Nov 23. - Publication Year :
- 2022
-
Abstract
- Global warming can have positive or negative impacts on society depending on sectors and changes in climate impact drivers, resulting in opportunities or risks. The same holds true for social-economic changes. However, past research has mostly focused on assessing risks, leaving potential opportunities under-addressed. Here, we simulated the impact of climate change and socioeconomic development on livestock snow disasters over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau during 1986-2100, by integrating the drivers of climate and socioeconomic changes via an event-based disaster risk assessment model. Model results show climate change and socioeconomic development contributes about equally to reducing livestock loss in snow disasters by 4% yr <superscript>-1</superscript> up to 2100 under representative concentration pathway 8.5 and shared-socioeconomic pathway 5. The marginal benefit from climate change was projected to be a 43.2% reduction in annual average loss per degree kelvin warming, and that from socioeconomic development was a 12.4% reduction per 100% increase in gross domestic production. In a 2 °C warmer world, the annual average loss could be 91% smaller compared with the baseline period (1986-2005). Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C would reduce the benefit by 5%, requiring a 135% increase in the marginal benefits of prevention capacity to offset the reduction.<br />Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.<br /> (Copyright © 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)
- Subjects :
- Animals
Climate Change
Livestock
Socioeconomic Factors
Tibet
Disasters
Snow
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 1879-1026
- Volume :
- 813
- Database :
- MEDLINE
- Journal :
- The Science of the total environment
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 34826478
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.151869