Predicting post-stroke motor recovery of upper extremity using clinical variables and performance assays: A prospective cohort study protocol.

Background and Purpose: Measurement of movement quality is essential to distinguish motor recovery patterns and optimize rehabilitation strategies post-stroke. Recently, the Stroke Recovery and Rehabilitation Roundtable Taskforce (SRRR) recommended four kinetic and kinematic performance assays to measure upper extremity (UE) movements and distinguish behavioral restitution and compensation mechanisms early post-stroke. The purpose of this study is to develop and validate a prediction model to analyze the added prognostic value of performance assays over clinical variables assessed up to 1-month post stroke for predicting recovery of UE motor impairment, capacity and quality of movement (QoM) measured at 3 months post-stroke onset.
Methods: In this prospective cohort study, 120 stroke survivors will be recruited within seven days post-stroke. Candidate predictors such as baseline characteristics, demographics and performance assays as per SRRR recommendations along with tonic stretch reflex threshold will be measured up to 1-month post-stroke. Upper extremity motor recovery will be evaluated in terms of motor impairment (Fugl-Meyer assessment for UE), UE capacity measured with Action Research Arm Test (ARAT) and QoM (movement smoothness in the form of peak metrics [PM]) assessed with a reach-to-grasp-to-mouth task (mimicking a drinking task) at 3 months post-stroke. Three multivariable linear regression models will be developed to predict factors responsible for the outcomes of Fugl-Meyer assessment for upper extremity (FM-UE), ARAT and movement quality. The developed models will be internally validated using a split-sample method.
Discussion: This study will provide a validated prediction model inclusive of clinical and performance assays that may assist in prediction of UE motor recovery. Predicting the amount of recovery and differentiating between behavioral restitution and compensation (as reflected by the FM-UE, QoM and ARAT) would enable us in realistic goal formation and planning rehabilitation. It would also help in encouraging patients to partake in early post-stroke rehabilitation thus improving the recovery potential.
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