[Epidemiological trends for human schistosomiasis prevalence in Hubei Province from 2004 to 2018 based on Joinpoint regression analysis].

Objective: To analyze the trends of human schistosomiasis prevalence in Hubei Province from 2004 to 2018, so as to provide the evidence for formulating the schistosomiasis elimination strategy in the province.
Methods: All data pertaining to human schistosomiasis prevalence in Hubei Province were collected from 2004 to 2018, and the trends for changes in seroprevalence, egg-positive rate and prevalence of human Schistosoma japonicum infection were analyzed using a Joinpoint regression model.
Results: Both of the numbers of residents seropositive and egg-positive for S. japonicum infections appeared a tendency towards a decline in Hubei Province from 2004 to 2018, and the prevalence of human S. japonicum infections reduced from 6.85% in 2004 to 0 in 2018. Joinpoint regression analysis showed that the prevalence of human S. japonicum infections appeared an overall tendency towards a reduction in Hubei Province from 2004 to 2018 [average annual percent change (AAPC) = -24.1%, P < 0.01], and the trends for the reduction were both significant during the period from 2004 to 2006 [annual percent change (APC) = -35.1%, P < 0.01] and from 2006 to 2018 (APC = -22.1%, P < 0.01). The prevalence of human S. japonicum infections appeared a tendency towards a decline in islet (AAPC = -25.1%, P < 0.01), inner embankment (AAPC = -26.4%, P < 0.01) and hilly subtypes of schistosomiasis-endemic areas (AAPC = -32.5%, P < 0.01) of Hubei Province from 2004 to 2018, and the prevalence all appeared a tendency towards a decline during the infection control stage (from 2004 to 2008), the transmission control stage (from 2009 to 2013) and the transmission interruption stage (from 2014 to 2018) (AAPC = -28.0%, -24.4% and -63.8%, all P values < 0.01). The seroprevalence of human S. japonicum infections appeared an overall tendency towards a decline in Hubei Province from 2004 to 2018 (AAPC = -14.5%, P < 0.01), and the trends for the reduction were both significant during the period from 2004 to 2012 (APC = -8.4%, P < 0.01) and from 2012 to 2018 (APC = -22.1%, P < 0.01). In addition, the egg-positive rate of human S. japonicum infections appeared an overall tendency towards a decline in Hubei Province from 2004 to 2018 (AAPC = -30.6%, P < 0.05), and the trend for the reduction was significant during the period from 2007 to 2014 (APC = -15.5%, P < 0.01).
Conclusions: The prevalence of human schistosomiasis appeared a tendency towards a decline in Hubei Province from 2004 to 2018, and the islet and inner embankment subtypes of endemic areas are a high priority for schistosomiasis control during the stage moving towards elimination in Hubei Province.