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Modeling and Preliminary Analysis of the Impact of Meteorological Conditions on the COVID-19 Epidemic.

Authors :
Sun C
Chao L
Li H
Hu Z
Zheng H
Li Q
Source :
International journal of environmental research and public health [Int J Environ Res Public Health] 2022 May 18; Vol. 19 (10). Date of Electronic Publication: 2022 May 18.
Publication Year :
2022

Abstract

Since the COVID-19 epidemic outbreak at the end of 2019, many studies regarding the impact of meteorological factors on the attack have been carried out, and inconsistent conclusions have been reached, indicating the issue's complexity. To more accurately identify the effects and patterns of meteorological factors on the epidemic, we used a combination of logistic regression (LgR) and partial least squares regression (PLSR) modeling to investigate the possible effects of common meteorological factors, including air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and surface pressure, on the transmission of the COVID-19 epidemic. Our analysis shows that: (1) Different countries and regions show spatial heterogeneity in the number of diagnosed patients of the epidemic, but this can be roughly classified into three types: "continuous growth", "staged shock", and "finished"; (2) Air temperature is the most significant meteorological factor influencing the transmission of the COVID-19 epidemic. Except for a few areas, regional air temperature changes and the transmission of the epidemic show a significant positive correlation, i.e., an increase in air temperature is conducive to the spread of the epidemic; (3) In different countries and regions studied, wind speed, relative humidity, and surface pressure show inconsistent correlation (and significance) with the number of diagnosed cases but show some regularity.

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
1660-4601
Volume :
19
Issue :
10
Database :
MEDLINE
Journal :
International journal of environmental research and public health
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
35627661
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19106125