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Modeled distribution shifts of North American birds over four decades based on suitable climate alone do not predict observed shifts.
- Source :
-
The Science of the total environment [Sci Total Environ] 2023 Jan 20; Vol. 857 (Pt 3), pp. 159603. Date of Electronic Publication: 2022 Oct 20. - Publication Year :
- 2023
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Abstract
- As climate change alters the global environment, it is critical to understand the relationship between shifting climate suitability and species distributions. Key questions include whether observed changes in population abundance are aligned with the velocity and direction of shifts predicted by climate suitability models and if the responses are consistent among species with similar ecological traits. We examined the direction and velocity of the observed abundance-based distribution centroids compared with the model-predicted bioclimatic distribution centroids of 250 bird species across the United States from 1969 to 2011. We hypothesized that there is a significant positive correlation in both direction and velocity between the observed and the modeled shifts. We then tested five additional hypotheses that predicted differential shifting velocity based on ecological adaptability and climate change exposure. Contrary to our hypotheses, we found large differences between the observed and modeled shifts among all studied bird species and within specific ecological guilds. However, temperate migrants and habitat generalist species tended to have higher velocity of observed shifts than other species. Neotropical migratory and wetland birds also had significantly different observed velocities than their counterparts, which may be due to their climate change exposure. The velocity based on modeled bioclimatic suitability did not exhibit significant differences among most guilds. Boreal forest birds were the only guild with significantly faster modeled-shifts than the other groups, suggesting an elevated conservation risk for high latitude and altitude species. The highly idiosyncratic species responses to climate and the mismatch between shifts in modeled and observed distribution centroids highlight the challenge of predicting species distribution change based solely on climate suitability and the importance of non-climatic factors traits in shaping species distributions.<br />Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.<br /> (Copyright © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)
- Subjects :
- Animals
Animal Distribution
Ecosystem
North America
Birds physiology
Climate Change
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 1879-1026
- Volume :
- 857
- Issue :
- Pt 3
- Database :
- MEDLINE
- Journal :
- The Science of the total environment
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 36272474
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159603