Autogeddon or autoheaven: Environmental and social effects of the automotive industry from launch to present.

The automotive industry is one of the most significant and increasing sources of pollution worldwide. Previous studies examining its impacts focus on the post-1950 era as data available before this period is scarce. This study carefully reconstructs six datasets from the early 20th century to 2019 for the UK: annual number of motor cars, road lengths, road fatalities, NOx and CO emissions, and fuel consumption. Interpolation was prudently used to fill gaps in the data sets. Results highlight changing health, social and environmental effects throughout the growth of the automotive sector. Ratios of fatalities to cars indicate social ingraining of the car and rapid response to legislation. Significant emissions resulted from the early industry. Successful remediation of emissions occurred in the late 20th century. All variables studied were interrelated, but expansion of road networks particularly contributed to a range of both positive and (unintended) negative consequences. World War 2 appears to have been a landmark for the automotive industry, producing capacity for mass production, personal mobility and research and therefore a struggle between impacts and social policies. We have demonstrated that technological developments and regulatory interventions relating to the motor industry, alongside events that have catalysed societal change, have been crucial in terms of subsequently providing benefits to society whilst also acting to mitigate (but not prevent) the adverse and frequently devastating impacts of motor vehicles on human health and the environment. A periodic, regular, overarching, independent review (~ every 5 years) of the collective positive and negative impacts of the motor vehicle industry and appropriate interventions are essential to maintain and improve social benefits and public and environmental health, as well as supporting delivery of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals by 2030 and beyond.
Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
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