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Contribution of Testing Strategies and Contact Tracing towards COVID-19 Outbreaks Control: A Mathematical Modeling Study.

Authors :
Kuo SC
Fan B
Zhu H
Wu MH
Lee FJ
Cheng YC
Wu HY
Hsu YT
Hsiung CA
Wu SI
Chen WJ
Chiou HY
Sytwu HK
Tsou HH
Source :
Tropical medicine and infectious disease [Trop Med Infect Dis] 2022 Nov 14; Vol. 7 (11). Date of Electronic Publication: 2022 Nov 14.
Publication Year :
2022

Abstract

This modeling study considers different screening strategies, contact tracing, and the severity of novel epidemic outbreaks for various population sizes, providing insight into multinational containment effectiveness of emerging infectious diseases, prior to vaccines development. During the period of the ancestral SARS-Cov-2 virus, contact tracing alone is insufficient to achieve outbreak control. Although universal testing is proposed in multiple nations, its effectiveness accompanied by other measures is rarely examined. Our research investigates the necessity of universal testing when contact tracing and symptomatic screening measures are implemented. We used a stochastic transmission model to simulate COVID-19 transmission, evaluating containment strategies via contact tracing, one-time high risk symptomatic testing, and universal testing. Despite universal testing having the potential to identify subclinical cases, which is crucial for non-pharmaceutical interventions, our model suggests that universal testing only reduces the total number of cases by 0.0009% for countries with low COVID-19 prevalence and 0.025% for countries with high COVID-19 prevalence when rigorous contact tracing and symptomatic screening are also implemented. These findings highlight the effectiveness of testing strategies and contact tracing in reducing COVID-19 cases by identifying subclinical cases.

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
2414-6366
Volume :
7
Issue :
11
Database :
MEDLINE
Journal :
Tropical medicine and infectious disease
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
36422926
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed7110376