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Papers and patents are becoming less disruptive over time.
- Source :
-
Nature [Nature] 2023 Jan; Vol. 613 (7942), pp. 138-144. Date of Electronic Publication: 2023 Jan 04. - Publication Year :
- 2023
-
Abstract
- Theories of scientific and technological change view discovery and invention as endogenous processes <superscript>1,2</superscript> , wherein previous accumulated knowledge enables future progress by allowing researchers to, in Newton's words, 'stand on the shoulders of giants' <superscript>3-7</superscript> . Recent decades have witnessed exponential growth in the volume of new scientific and technological knowledge, thereby creating conditions that should be ripe for major advances <superscript>8,9</superscript> . Yet contrary to this view, studies suggest that progress is slowing in several major fields <superscript>10,11</superscript> . Here, we analyse these claims at scale across six decades, using data on 45 million papers and 3.9 million patents from six large-scale datasets, together with a new quantitative metric-the CD index <superscript>12</superscript> -that characterizes how papers and patents change networks of citations in science and technology. We find that papers and patents are increasingly less likely to break with the past in ways that push science and technology in new directions. This pattern holds universally across fields and is robust across multiple different citation- and text-based metrics <superscript>1,13-17</superscript> . Subsequently, we link this decline in disruptiveness to a narrowing in the use of previous knowledge, allowing us to reconcile the patterns we observe with the 'shoulders of giants' view. We find that the observed declines are unlikely to be driven by changes in the quality of published science, citation practices or field-specific factors. Overall, our results suggest that slowing rates of disruption may reflect a fundamental shift in the nature of science and technology.<br /> (© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.)
- Subjects :
- Humans
Research Personnel
Datasets as Topic
Publishing statistics & numerical data
Publishing trends
Time Factors
Diffusion of Innovation
Inventions statistics & numerical data
Inventions trends
Technology statistics & numerical data
Technology trends
Patents as Topic statistics & numerical data
Research Report trends
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 1476-4687
- Volume :
- 613
- Issue :
- 7942
- Database :
- MEDLINE
- Journal :
- Nature
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 36600070
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05543-x