Contextualising adverse events of special interest to characterise the baseline incidence rates in 24 million patients with COVID-19 across 26 databases: a multinational retrospective cohort study.

Background: Adverse events of special interest (AESIs) were pre-specified to be monitored for the COVID-19 vaccines. Some AESIs are not only associated with the vaccines, but with COVID-19. Our aim was to characterise the incidence rates of AESIs following SARS-CoV-2 infection in patients and compare these to historical rates in the general population.
Methods: A multi-national cohort study with data from primary care, electronic health records, and insurance claims mapped to a common data model. This study's evidence was collected between Jan 1, 2017 and the conclusion of each database (which ranged from Jul 2020 to May 2022). The 16 pre-specified prevalent AESIs were: acute myocardial infarction, anaphylaxis, appendicitis, Bell's palsy, deep vein thrombosis, disseminated intravascular coagulation, encephalomyelitis, Guillain- Barré syndrome, haemorrhagic stroke, non-haemorrhagic stroke, immune thrombocytopenia, myocarditis/pericarditis, narcolepsy, pulmonary embolism, transverse myelitis, and thrombosis with thrombocytopenia. Age-sex standardised incidence rate ratios (SIR) were estimated to compare post-COVID-19 to pre-pandemic rates in each of the databases.
Findings: Substantial heterogeneity by age was seen for AESI rates, with some clearly increasing with age but others following the opposite trend. Similarly, differences were also observed across databases for same health outcome and age-sex strata. All studied AESIs appeared consistently more common in the post-COVID-19 compared to the historical cohorts, with related meta-analytic SIRs ranging from 1.32 (1.05 to 1.66) for narcolepsy to 11.70 (10.10 to 13.70) for pulmonary embolism.
Interpretation: Our findings suggest all AESIs are more common after COVID-19 than in the general population. Thromboembolic events were particularly common, and over 10-fold more so. More research is needed to contextualise post-COVID-19 complications in the longer term.
Funding: None.
Competing Interests: EAV, AS, CB, RM, KH, AGS, GR, MJS, and PBR are employees of Janssen Research and Development LLC and shareholders of Johnson & Johnson (J&J) stock. Many data partners (including JMR, JMRA, MAM, MdW, LHJ, GB, PRR) on this project have received funding from the Innovative Medicines Initiative (IMI) 2 Joint Undertaking (JU) under grant agreement No 806968. The JU receives support from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme and EFPIA. The funding source had no role in writing the manuscript or the decision to submit it for publication. Odysseus Data Services, where SvS is employed, is a beneficiary of the mentioned IMI 2 JU project. DPA has received support from the EMA and Innovative Medicines Initiative. DPA's research group has received grant support from Amgen, Chesi-Taylor, Novartis, GSK, UCB Biopharma and J&J. DPA's department has received advisory/consultancy fees from AstraZeneca, Amgen, Astellas, J&J, and UCB Biopharma. DPA's department has received fees for speaker services from Amgen and UCB Biopharma. DPA's has other financial or non-financial interests in Janssen, on behalf of the IMI-funded EHDEN and European Medical Information Framework (EMIF) consortiums, and Synapse Management Partners have supported training programmes organised by DPA's department that was open for external participants. TDS received financial support from the Institute de Salud Carlos Ill (ISCIII; Miguel Servet 2021: CP21/00023) which is co-funded by the European Union. The funding source had no role in writing the manuscript or the decision to submit it for publication. PRR, MdW, LHJ work for a research group who received/receives unconditional research grants from Chiesi, Amgen, UCB, J&J, European Medicines Agency (EMA), and IMI. GH provided funding for use of the CUIMC database and the OHDSI infrastructure. GH received support through a grant to Columbia University (NIH R01 LM006910). MAS receives grants from the US Department of Veterans Affairs within the scope of this work, and grants and contracts from the US National Institutes of Health, US Food & Drug Administration, and Janssen Research & Development outside the scope of this work. EPM receives salary support from the Department of Medicine at University of Calgary. EPM receives consulting fees from Janssen Research & Development for work that is outside the scope of the current study. FM's main employment is for Heliant d.o.o, an EHR provider in Serbia. JDP received salary support through the Universidad de Norte. DJD and ZC are full-time employees of CPRD, which provides contract research services for government and related healthcare authorities, and the pharmaceutical industry, including Janssen. FN holds some AstraZeneca shares and was employed there until 2019. RV, AJB, AP2, LD, and CH received partial funding for this work by the University of California Health System and its Center for Data-Driven Insights and Innovation. MGK received support for the manuscript via institutional (internal funding) only. AJB's research has been funded by NIH, Peraton (as the prime on an NIH contract), Genentech, Johnson and Johnson, FDA, Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, Leon Lowenstein Foundation, Intervalien Foundation, Priscilla Chan and Mark Zuckerberg, the Barbara and Gerson Bakar Foundation, and in the recent past, the March of Dimes, Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation, California Governor’s Office of Planning and Research, California Institute for Regenerative Medicine, L’Oréal, and Progenity. AJB receives royalty payments through Stanford University, for several patents and other disclosures licensed to NuMedii and Personalis. AJB is a co-founder and consultant to Personalis and NuMedii; consultant to Mango Tree Corporation, and in the recent past, Samsung, 10x Genomics, Helix, Pathway Genomics, and Verinata (Illumina); has served on paid advisory panels or boards for Geisinger Health, Regenstrief Institute, Gerson Lehman Group, AlphaSights, Covance, Novartis, Genentech, Merck, and Roche. AJB has received honoraria and travel reimbursement for invited talks from J&J, Roche, Genentech, Pfizer, Merck, Lilly, Takeda, Varian, Mars, Siemens, Optum, Abbott, Celgene, AstraZeneca, AbbVie, Westat, many academic institutions, medical or disease specific foundations and associations, and health systems. AJB is a shareholder in Personalis and NuMedii; is a minor shareholder in Apple, Meta (Facebook), Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Amazon, Snap, 10x Genomics, Illumina, Regeneron, Sanofi, Pfizer, Royalty Pharma, Moderna, Sutro, Doximity, BioNtech, Invitae, Pacific Biosciences, Editas Medicine, Nuna Health, Assay Depot, Vet24seven, and several other non-health related companies and mutual funds. DRM has grants or contracts from Wellcome Trust Clinical Research Fellowship (214588/Z/18/Z). FB has a leadership or fiduciary role as the program chair of j-ISBA.
(© 2023 The Author(s).)