Back to Search Start Over

The Brazilian National Oral Health Policy and oral cancer mortality trends: An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model.

The Brazilian National Oral Health Policy and oral cancer mortality trends: An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model.

Authors :
Costa EM
Magalhães Rodrigues ES
de Sousa FS
Pimentel FB
Sodré Lopes MB
Vissoci JRN
Thomaz EBAF
Source :
PloS one [PLoS One] 2023 Sep 21; Vol. 18 (9), pp. e0291609. Date of Electronic Publication: 2023 Sep 21 (Print Publication: 2023).
Publication Year :
2023

Abstract

Objective: This study analyzes the effect of the Brazilian National Oral Health Policy (NOHP) on oral cancer mortality rates (OCMR).<br />Method: This is an ecological study with secondary oral cancer death data, using interrupted time series analysis (ARIMA, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average). Annual death data were collected from the Mortality Information System (1996-2019). The outcome was the OCMR, standardized by gender and age We considered the NOHP, categorized as "0" (before its implementation), from 1996 to 2004, and "1 to 15", from 2005 to 2019. ARIMA modeling was carried out for temporal analysis, and regression coefficient estimation (RC).<br />Results: The Brazilian NOHP implementation was associated with an increase in OCMR in the North region (CR = 0.16; p = 0.022) and with a decrease in the Southeast region (CR = -0.04; p<0.001), but did not affect the other macro-regions nor Brazil. The forecast models estimated an increase in OCMR for the North, and Northeast, a decrease for the Southeast, and stability for the South and Brazil.<br />Conclusion: The Brazilian NOHP is not being effective in reducing the OCMR. The trends behaved differently in the Brazilian territory, highlighting health inequities. We recommend that the NOHP strengthen the oral health care network, incorporating oral cancer as a notifiable disease, adopting strategies for prevention, screening, and providing opportunities for early treatment of the disease.<br />Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.<br /> (Copyright: © 2023 Costa et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
1932-6203
Volume :
18
Issue :
9
Database :
MEDLINE
Journal :
PloS one
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
37733703
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0291609