Bi-decadal trend of atmospheric emissions from thermal power plants in Mainland Southeast Asia: Implications on acid deposition and climate change Mitigation.

Steady increase in electricity generation and heavy reliance on coal in Mainland Southeast Asia (M-SEA) create huge pressure on the environment. This study used information collected from individual thermal power plants (TPPs) in M-SEA to calculate emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases (GHG) for 2010, 2015 and 2019. The emissions were projected to 2030 following the latest national Power Development Plans. The emission results were analyzed in relation to the power development by country and fuel type, and environmental impacts. The region collective annual TPP emissions in 2019, in Gg/yr, were 27 PM _2.5 , 77 PM ₁₀ , 0.7 BC, 4.9 OC, 255 SO ₂ , 451 NO _x , 91 CO, 12 NMVOC, 0.4 NH ₃ , 260 CO ₂ , 13 CH ₄ , and 26 N ₂ O. Coal-fired TPPs dominated the emissions of most species while NG-fired contributed the largest amounts of NH ₃ and CH ₄ . Bi-decadal increase in energy production from TPPs of nearly 3 times is accompanied by 2.7 times increase in emissions. The 2010-2019 period saw average emissions increase by 1.9 times (TPPs' energy production increased 1.6 times), slightly higher than the rate of 1.4 times projected for 2019-2030 (double TPPs' energy production). The current intrusion rate of renewable energy accompanied by phasing-out of old TPPs are still by far insufficient to reverse the emission trend. Aggressive power development in Vietnam with its heavy coal reliance made it the largest emitter in 2019 and the projected for 2030, followed by Thailand. Spatially, higher emissions are seen over locations of large coal-fired TPPs in Vietnam and Thailand. Available rainwater composition monitoring data showed higher deposition amounts of sulfate and nitrate in areas located near or downwind of large TPPs. Significant GHG emissions projected for TPPs in 2030 indicated that TPPs should be the priority for emission reduction to achieve Nationally Determined Contribution targets. Emission database produced by this study can be used in dispersion modeling studies to assess impacts of TPPs on air quality, health, and acid deposition.
Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
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