Assessing Risk for Complications in Acute Hematogenous Osteomyelitis in Children: Validation of 2 Predictive Scores.

Background: Acute hematogenous osteomyelitis (AHO) can be associated with severe complications which can be difficult to predict in the clinical setting. The previously published predictive acute complication score ("A-SCORE") and chronic complication score ("C-SCORE") show promise, however, further external validation is needed.
Methods: We performed a retrospective study of 418 children with AHO and analyzed the performance of A-SCORE (variables included bone abscess, fever after 48 h of starting antibiotics, suppurative arthritis, disseminated disease, and delayed source control) to predict risk for acute complicated course (treatment failure, prolonged admission, and/or need for ≥2 bone debridements) and C-SCORE (includes disseminated disease, bone debridement, and CRP ≥10 mg/dL at 2-4 days after starting antibiotics) to predict chronic complications (growth restriction, pathologic fracture, chronic osteomyelitis, avascular necrosis, joint deformity, and/or frozen joint).
Results: An acute complicated course occurred in 106/418 (25.4%); 51/380 (13.5%) with complete follow-up data had a chronic complication. The A-SCORE performed with similar specificity (78%) and negative predictive value (NPV) (92%), and higher sensitivity (81%) and increased area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) (0.87) in our population. The C-SCORE performed with similar sensitivity (64%) and NPV (94%) but had lower specificity (86%) and AUC (0.71) than originally reported. Other variables associated with development of complications such as tibia involvement and bacteremia ≥2 days were identified but did not result in significantly improved predictive scores.
Conclusions: Predictive A-SCORE and C-SCORE for AHO complications in children may help guide acute management and long-term follow-up decisions. Prospective studies are needed to determine their applicability.
(© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Journal of the Pediatric Infectious Diseases Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)