Ethnic disparities in progression rates for sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy in diabetic eye screening: a population-based retrospective cohort study.

Introduction: The English Diabetic Eye Screening Programme (DESP) offers people living with diabetes (PLD) annual eye screening. We examined incidence and determinants of sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy (STDR) in a sociodemographically diverse multi-ethnic population.
Research Design and Methods: North East London DESP cohort data (January 2012 to December 2021) with 137 591 PLD with no retinopathy, or non-STDR at baseline in one/both eyes, were used to calculate STDR incidence rates by sociodemographic factors, diabetes type, and duration. HR from Cox models examined associations with STDR.
Results: There were 16 388 incident STDR cases over a median of 5.4 years (IQR 2.8-8.2; STDR rate 2.214, 95% CI 2.214 to 2.215 per 100 person-years). People with no retinopathy at baseline had a lower risk of sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy (STDR) compared with those with non-STDR in one eye (HR 3.03, 95% CI 2.91 to 3.15, p<0.001) and both eyes (HR 7.88, 95% CI 7.59 to 8.18, p<0.001). Black and South Asian individuals had higher STDR hazards than white individuals (HR 1.57, 95% CI 1.50 to 1.64 and HR 1.36, 95% CI 1.31 to 1.42, respectively). Additionally, every 5-year increase in age at inclusion was associated with an 8% reduction in STDR hazards (p<0.001).
Conclusions: Ethnic disparities exist in a health system limited by capacity rather than patient economic circumstances. Diabetic retinopathy at first screen is a strong determinant of STDR development. By using basic demographic characteristics, screening programmes or clinical practices can stratify risk for sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy development.
Competing Interests: Competing interests: AYL: has received fees from Santen, Genetech, FDA, Johnson and Johnson, Carl Zeiss Meditec, Gyroscope, Regeneron, and has a non-remunerative relation with Microsoft. CE: has received fees from Heidelberg Engineering, Inozyme Pharma. AT: has received fees from Annexon, Apellis, Bayer, Genentech, Iveric Bio, Novartis, Oxurion, and Roche.
(© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2023. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)