Understanding the implications of under-reporting, vaccine efficiency and social behavior on the post-pandemic spread using physics informed neural networks: A case study of China.

In late 2019, the emergence of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China, led to the implementation of stringent measures forming the zero-COVID policy aimed at eliminating transmission. Zero-COVID policy basically aimed at completely eliminating the transmission of COVID-19. However, the relaxation of this policy in late 2022 reportedly resulted in a rapid surge of COVID-19 cases. The aim of this work is to investigate the factors contributing to this outbreak using a new SEIR-type epidemic model with time-dependent level of immunity. Our model incorporates a time-dependent level of immunity considering vaccine doses administered and time-post-vaccination dependent vaccine efficacy. We find that vaccine efficacy plays a significant role in determining the outbreak size and maximum number of daily infected. Additionally, our model considers under-reporting in daily cases and deaths, revealing their combined effects on the outbreak magnitude. We also introduce a novel Physics Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) approach which is extremely useful in estimating critical parameters and helps in evaluating the predictive capability of our model.
Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
(Copyright: © 2023 Ghosh et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)