Development of a standardized methodology for transfer learning with QSAR models: a purely data-driven approach for source task selection.

Transfer learning is a machine learning technique that works well with chemical endpoints, with several papers confirming its efficiency. Although effective, because the choice of source/assistant tasks is non-trivial, the application of this technique is severely limited by the domain knowledge of the modeller. Considering this limitation, we developed a purely data-driven approach for source task selection that abstracts the need for domain knowledge. To achieve this, we created a supervised learning setting in which transfer outcome (positive/negative) is the variable to be predicted, and a set of six transferability metrics, calculated based on information from target and source datasets, are the features for prediction. We used the ChEMBL database to generate 100,000 transfers using random pairing, and with these transfers, we trained and evaluated our transferability prediction model (TP-Model). Our TP-Model achieved a 135-fold increase in precision while achieving a sensitivity of 92%, demonstrating a clear superiority against random search. In addition, we observed that transfer learning could provide considerable performance increases when applicable, with an average Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC) increase of 0.19 when using a single source and an average MCC increase of 0.44 when using multiple sources.