Research on the spatiotemporal evolution and non-stationarity effect of urban carbon balance: Evidence from representative cities in China.

Accelerating the attainment of carbon balance in Chinese cities has become pivotal in addressing global climate change and promoting green, low-carbon development. This study, encompassing 277 prefecture-level and above cities from 2007 to 2020, reveals a positive overall trend in China's urban carbon balance index. The evolution unfolds in two stages, demonstrating a distinct "tiered development" pattern across the eastern, central and western regions. Moreover, significant spatial agglomeration characteristics characterize China's carbon balance hot and cold spots throughout the study period, with their spatial agglomeration degree remaining stable. The standard deviation ellipse analysis confirms these hot and cold spots' alignment with China's economic development level and population distribution. The GTWR test results highlight the pronounced non-stationary characteristics of different driving factors in space and time, exhibiting variations in strength and direction among regions. Consequently, enhancing China's urban carbon balance requires tailored measures based on different areas' unique conditions and development characteristics, emphasizing a hierarchical and classified approach to leverage distinct driving factors and foster a green development system in China.
Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
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