Residual risk of thromboembolic events despite anticoagulation in Middle Eastern patients with atrial fibrillation. The JoFib study.

Objectives: To investigate residual risk of thromboembolic events despite anticoagulation in patients with atrial fibrillation form the Middle East.
Materials and Methods: Using data from the JoFib registry, we described the characteristics of patients treated with anticoagulants (n = 1654) and calculated the incidence rate for thromboembolic events. We constructed multivariable Cox proportional hazard models and calculated the population-attributable fraction to determine clinical factors predictive of residual thromboembolic events.
Results: During the one-year follow-up, 57 thromboembolic events occurred (incidence rate 4.1 per 100 person-years). In multivariable time-to-event analysis, prior thromboembolic events (aHR 3.8, 95 %CI 2.2-6.4, p < 0.001) and diabetes (aHR 2.3, 95 %CI 1.3-4.1, p = 0.004) were independently predictive of residual thromboembolism. Percentage of thromboembolic risk attributable to prior thromboembolic events was 30.9 % (95 %CI 13.9-44.6, p = 0.001) and was 37.1 % (95 %CI 8.8-56.6, p = 0.015) for diabetes. Furthermore, the effect of diabetes on thromboembolic events depends on the type of anticoagulant, with diabetes being significantly predictive of thromboembolic events in patients anticoagulated with warfarin (aHR 4.11, 95 %CI 1.81-9.37, p = 0.001), but not non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (aHR 1.23, 95 %CI 0.51-2.97, p = 0.643) with a p = 0.045 for interaction. Prior thromboembolism was independently predictive of thromboembolic events in both anticoagulants (aHR 2.67, 95 %CI 1.28-5.58, p = 0.009; aHR 7.33, 95 %CI 3.05-17.65, p < 0.001; respectively; p = 0.084 for interaction).
Conclusions: Middle Eastern patients with atrial fibrillation remain at significant risk of thromboembolism and its recurrence despite anticoagulation, and especially in diabetic patients. Therefore, management should focus on controlling diabetes as well as other modifiable risk factors in addition to antithrombotic therapy.
Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest None.
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