From frequented environments to the crime scene: Evaluating findings of fibre comparisons in complex transfer scenarios.

The evaluation of the results from a fibre comparison given activity level propositions is well established when considering only a single group of potential primary transfers. However, secondary transfers are less prevalent in the literature despite their potential value, especially in cases where the primary transfers are not sufficiently informative. In particular, one can consider the fibres from frequented environments of the person of interest (POI) identified in a struggle. If the POI did struggle with the complainant, these fibres can potentially be recovered in small quantities on the surface of the complainant as a result of secondary or higher order transfers. Therefore, these fibres may provide useful information that can resolve competing propositions involving struggles, as well as forensic intelligence in the form of linkages or investigative leads. If a non-differentiation is indeed found between recovered fibres and fibres from the frequented environments of the POI, these results need to be properly interpreted. In this paper, a model, based on an object oriented Bayesian network (OOBN), for evaluating such findings along with its implementation is proposed. Using available data from the literature and other sources, the model was then used to assess a few hypothetical scenarios involving secondary transfers. The results provided useful insights into secondary transfer that help to validate the model and demonstrate the potential utility that can be gained by considering transfers beyond the primary order. Moreover, these results can be used to help guide future research by identifying gaps in the literature. Finally, the direct application to a case study was conducted to demonstrate the practical aspects of such a model.
Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest None
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