Early predictors of intestinal complications in pediatric-onset Crohn's disease: A long-term cohort study in Taiwan.

Purpose: Identifying reliable prognostic factors for pediatric-onset Crohn's disease (CD) is important for guiding early treatment. This study aimed to evaluate the validity of various clinical parameters for predicting long-term intestinal complications in pediatric-onset CD patients with CD in Taiwan.
Methods: This was a single-center, retrospective study. Patients diagnosed with CD under 18 years of age at our hospital between January 1999 and December 2021 were enrolled. The baseline clinical variables and the Pediatric Crohn's Disease Activity Index (PCDAI) were obtained. Patients were categorized into low-, medium-, or high-risk groups based on the 2020 European Crohn's and Colitis Organization and European Society for Pediatric Gastroenterology Hepatology and Nutrition (ECCO-ESPGHAN) guidelines. The primary endpoint was the occurrence of new intestinal complications.
Results: Among 53 enrolled patients (33 males and 20 females), 8 patients (33.96%) developed intestinal complications during the follow-up period (median 6.42 years, 3.17-9.75 years). Patients in the initial ECCO-ESPGHAN medium- or high-risk group had a 4.71-fold higher risk of intestinal complications than those in the low-risk group [hazard ratio = 4.71, p = 0.023] after adjusting for PCDAI in the multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis. The other clinical variables did not reach statistical significance in predicting intestinal complications. The positive and negative predictive values of the ECCO-ESPGHAN stratification method for intestinal complications were 48.15% and 80.77%, respectively.
Conclusions: ECCO-ESPGHAN risk stratification is an effective early predictor of long-term intestinal complications in the Taiwanese population and may be used in clinical practice to guide early advanced therapy.
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