Estimating the human bottleneck for contact tracing.

Authors :: Broda MD
Borovska P
Kollenda D
Linka M
de Haas N
de Haas S
de Haas B
Source :: PNAS nexus [PNAS Nexus] 2024 Jul 16; Vol. 3 (7), pp. pgae283. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Jul 16 (Print Publication: 2024).
Publication Year :: 2024
Abstract: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has highlighted the importance of contact tracing for epidemiological mitigation. Contact tracing interviews (CTIs) typically rely on episodic memory, which is prone to decline over time. Here, we provide a quantitative estimate of reporting decline for age- and gender-representative samples from the United Kingdom and Germany, emulating >15,000 CTIs. We find that the number of reported contacts declines as a power function of recall delay and is significantly higher for younger subjects and for those who used memory aids, such as a scheduler. We further find that these factors interact with delay: Older subjects and those who made no use of memory aids have steeper decline functions. These findings can inform epidemiological modeling and policies in the context of infectious diseases.<br /> (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of National Academy of Sciences.)