Prediction of medical admissions after psychiatric inpatient hospitalization in bipolar disorder: a retrospective cohort study.

Objective: Bipolar Disorder (BD) is a severe mental illness associated with high rates of general medical comorbidity, reduced life expectancy, and premature mortality. Although BD has been associated with high medical hospitalization, the factors that contribute to this risk remain largely unexplored. We used baseline medical and psychiatric records to develop a supervised machine learning model to predict general medical admissions after discharge from psychiatric hospitalization.
Methods: In this retrospective three-year cohort study of 71 patients diagnosed with BD (mean age=52.19 years, females=56.33%), lasso regression models combining medical and psychiatric records, as well as those using them separately, were fitted and their predictive power was estimated using a leave-one-out cross-validation procedure.
Results: The proportion of medical admissions in patients with BD was higher compared with age- and sex-matched hospitalizations in the same region (25.4% vs. 8.48%). The lasso model fairly accurately predicted the outcome (area under the curve [AUC]=69.5%, 95%C.I.=55-84.1; sensitivity=61.1%, specificity=75.5%, balanced accuracy=68.3%). Notably, pre-existing cardiovascular, neurological, or osteomuscular diseases collectively accounted for more than 90% of the influence on the model. The accuracy of the model based on medical records was slightly inferior (AUC=68.7%, 95%C.I. = 54.6-82.9), while that of the model based on psychiatric records only was below chance (AUC=61.8%, 95%C.I.=46.2-77.4).
Conclusion: Our findings support the need to monitor medical comorbidities during clinical decision-making to tailor and implement effective preventive measures in people with BD. Further research with larger sample sizes and prospective cohorts is warranted to replicate these findings and validate the predictive model.
Competing Interests: MS received honoraria/has been a consultant for AbbVie, Angelini, Lundbeck, Otsuka. EV has received grants and served as consultant, advisor or CME speaker for the following entities: ABBiotics, AbbVie, Adamed, Angelini, Biogen, Beckley-Psytech, Biohaven, Boehringer-Ingelheim, Celon Pharma, Compass, Dainippon Sumitomo Pharma, Ethypharm, Ferrer, Gedeon Richter, GH Research, Glaxo-Smith Kline, HMNC, Idorsia, Johnson & Johnson, Lundbeck, Luye Pharma, Medincell, Merck, Newron, Novartis, Orion Corporation, Organon, Otsuka, Roche, Rovi, Sage, Sanofi-Aventis, Sunovion, Takeda, Teva, and Viatris, outside the submitted work. MAF received grant support from Assurex Health and Mayo Foundation, received CME travel and honoraria from Carnot Laboratories and American Physician Institute, and has Financial Interest/Stock ownership/Royalties from Chymia LLC. JR has received CME honoraria from Inspira Networks for a machine learning course promoted by Adamed, outside the submitted work. The remaining authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest. The author(s) declared that they were an editorial board member of Frontiers, at the time of submission. This had no impact on the peer review process and the final decision.
(Copyright © 2024 Miola, De Prisco, Lussignoli, Meda, Dughiero, Costa, Nunez, Fornaro, Veldic, Frye, Vieta, Solmi, Radua and Sambataro.)