Abortion Rate Increased And Birth Rate Decreased After Introduction Of Medicaid Abortion Coverage In Illinois.

The Hyde Amendment prohibits US federal spending on abortion, including federal Medicaid dollars. Seventeen states cover abortion care in their Medicaid programs, using state funds, but causal evidence on how Medicaid coverage for abortion affects pregnancy outcomes is limited. Using a difference-in-differences design and 2014-21 birth and abortion data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that predate the US Supreme Court's Dobbs decision in 2022, we evaluated a 2018 policy introducing Medicaid coverage for abortion in Illinois. This change increased the number of abortions in the state by 2.43 per 1,000 reproductive-age females, an 18.2 percent increase, and reduced births by 1.66 per 1,000 reproductive-age females, a 2.8 percent decrease, relative to twenty-nine comparison states that did not cover abortion during the study period. Subgroup analyses of birth rates suggested that decreases in birth rates were more pronounced among Black and Hispanic residents, residents in counties with higher poverty rates, and residents closer to an abortion facility. Our finding suggests that Medicaid can play an important role in abortion access.