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The long-term and short-term effects of interest rate volatility on corporate bankruptcy risk: An industry and supply chain perspective.
- Source :
-
PloS one [PLoS One] 2025 Feb 07; Vol. 20 (2), pp. e0317185. Date of Electronic Publication: 2025 Feb 07 (Print Publication: 2025). - Publication Year :
- 2025
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Abstract
- While higher interest rates increase the cost of credit financing for businesses, this study finds that the direct impact of this traditional credit transmission mechanism on corporate bankruptcy risk is limited. Instead, our research reveals that changes in corporate behavior induced by rising debt financing costs are the root cause of bankruptcy risk. In the short term, an increase in interest rates drives businesses to substitute supply chain financing for credit financing in pursuit of profit maximization. This mismatch of short-term debt and long-term investments undermines the sustainability of the supply chain, ultimately reducing financial security-sacrificing safety for profitability. In the long term, higher interest rates exacerbate the overcapacity problem in industries, increasing the unsustainability of the production and sales balance. Using data from China's construction industry, this study empirically tests these findings and, based on the main conclusions, provides policy suggestions regarding the long- and short-term effects of monetary policy on the sustainable development of China's construction industry: (1) focus on short-term interest rate risks and be vigilant against commercial credit bubbles; (2) long-term monetary policy should prioritize industrial structure optimization.<br />Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.<br /> (Copyright: © 2025 Chen et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)
- Subjects :
- China
Commerce economics
Humans
Bankruptcy
Industry economics
Investments economics
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 1932-6203
- Volume :
- 20
- Issue :
- 2
- Database :
- MEDLINE
- Journal :
- PloS one
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 39919131
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0317185