Prospective study of asymptomatic valvular aortic stenosis. Clinical, echocardiographic, and exercise predictors of outcome.

Background: Only limited data on the rate of hemodynamic progression and predictors of outcome in asymptomatic patients with valvular aortic stenosis (AS) are available.
Methods and Results: In 123 adults (mean age, 63 +/- 16 years) with asymptomatic AS, annual clinical, echocardiographic, and exercise data were obtained prospectively (mean follow-up of 2.5 +/- 1.4 years). Aortic jet velocity increased by 0.32 +/- 0.34 m/s per year and mean gradient by 7 +/- 7 mm Hg per year; valve area decreased by 0.12 +/- 0.19 cm2 per year. Kaplan-Meier event-free survival, with end points defined as death (n = 8) or aortic valve surgery (n = 48), was 93 +/- 5% at 1 year, 62 +/- 8% at 3 years, and 26 +/- 10% at 5 years. Univariate predictors of outcome included baseline jet velocity, mean gradient, valve area, and the rate of increase in jet velocity (all P < or = .001) but not age, sex, or cause of AS. Those with an end point had a smaller exercise increase in valve area, blood pressure, and cardiac output and a greater exercise decrease in stroke volume. Multivariate predictors of outcome were jet velocity at baseline (P < .0001), the rate of change in jet velocity (P < .0001), and functional status score (P = .002). The likelihood of remaining alive without valve replacement at 2 years was only 21 +/- 18% for a jet velocity at entry > 4.0 m/s, compared with 66 +/- 13% for a velocity of 3.0 to 4.0 m/s and 84 +/- 16% for a jet velocity < 3.0 m/s (P < .0001).
Conclusions: In adults with asymptomatic AS, the rate of hemodynamic progression and clinical outcome are predicted by jet velocity, the rate of change in jet velocity, and functional status.