Decreasing mortality from acute myocardial infarctions: effect of attack rates and case severity.

Mortality from myocardial infarction (MI) has declined in many countries and the reasons for the decline have not been fully quantified. We used the database of the Halifax County MONICA Project to test the hypothesis that the decline of in-hospital mortality from MI can be explained by a trend toward less severe disease as opposed to improved treatment. During the study period 1984-1993, 14,130 people aged 25-74 had been admitted to hospital with suspected MI. Of these, 3774 were diagnosed as definite MI by standardized criteria (480 fatal). For each patient, clinical history, serial cardiac enzymes, and ECG treatment regimen during hospital stay were extracted from patient charts. Survival status 28 days after onset of symptoms was determined. A severity index predicting 28-day case fatality was derived from health status at admission time. During the study period the rate of definite MI in the MONICA target population showed a general downward trend from 221 to 179 per 100,000/year (p = 0.0002). The severity index increased during the observation time (p < 0.0001), predicting 25% higher mortality. Case fatality fluctuated, but showed a marginally significant decline. We conclude that part of the decreased in-hospital mortality from MI is due to lower attack rates. The remainder occurred despite increased case severity and is possibly due to improved in-hospital treatment.