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THE TEMPERATURE FEEDBACK PROBLEM.

Authors :
Monckton, Christopher
Source :
Energy & Environment; Aug2015, Vol. 26 Issue 5, p829-840, 12p
Publication Year :
2015

Abstract

In the past 810 ka, inferred variability of absolute temperature has barely exceeded ±3 K, or ±1 % of the period mean. This thermostatic behavior seems inconsistent with a feedback sum f<subscript>t</subscript> = (Σ<subscript>i</subscript>f<subscript>t,i</subscript>) ⪢ 0 over any term of years t. In electronic circuits, as the loop gain g<subscript>t</subscript> exceeds 1, the Bode system-gain relation G<subscript>t</subscript> = (1 -g<subscript>t</subscript>)<superscript>-1</superscript> models the abrupt transition of the output voltage from V<subscript>t</subscript> → + ∞ to - ∞ ← V<subscript>t</subscript>(G<subscript>t</subscript>,V<subscript>t</subscript> being momentarily undefined at the singularity, where g<subscript>t</subscript> = 1). Yet in the climate, where g<subscript>t</subscript> might plausibly exceed unity owing to, say. the near-exponential Clausius-CIapeyron increase in the water-vapor carrying capacity of the atmospheric space as it warms, +Δf<subscript>t</subscript>⇒ +ΔT<subscript>t</subscript> ⇒ - ΔT<subscript>t</subscript> for all f<subscript>t</subscript> 0. In this and several other material respects the Bode relation, which as clearly specifies a negative dynamical-system response to g<subscript>t</subscript> > 1 as a positive response to g<subscript>t</subscript> < 1, seems inapplicable to the climate. In general-circulation models, the equilibrium system gain G<subscript>∞</subscript> = (1 -g<subscript>∞</subscript>)<superscript>-1</superscript>=(1-λ<subscript>0</subscript>f<subscript>∞</subscript>)<superscript>-1</superscript>, where λ<subscript>0</subscript> is the Planck parameter, doubles or triples a direct warming. But if Bode is inapplicable to the climate, what is the appropriate relation between loop gain g<subscript>t</subscript> and system gain G<subscript>t</subscript>, and thus between instantaneous (ΔT<subscript>0</subscript>), transient (ΔT<subscript>t</subscript>), and equilibrium (ΔT<subscript>∞</subscript>) climate sensitivity? What representation of system gain in the climate should replace the inapplicable Bode relation? [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
0958305X
Volume :
26
Issue :
5
Database :
Complementary Index
Journal :
Energy & Environment
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
110337871
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1260/0958-305X.26.5.829