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Eliciting GDP Forecasts from the FOMC's Minutes Around the Financial Crisis.
- Source :
- Working Papers -- U.S. Federal Reserve Board's International Finance Discussion Papers; Nov2015, Issue 1152, p1-25, 26p
- Publication Year :
- 2015
-
Abstract
- Stekler and Symington (2016) construct indexes that quantify the Federal Open Market Committee's views about the U.S. economy, as expressed in the minutes of the FOMC's meetings. These indexes provide insights on the FOMC's deliberations, especially at the onset of the Great Recession. The current paper complements Stekler and Symington's analysis by showing that their indexes reveal relatively minor bias in the FOMC's views when the indexes are reinterpreted as forecasts. Additionally, these indexes provide a proximate mechanism for inferring the Fed staff's Greenbook forecasts of the U.S. real GDP growth rate, years before the Greenbook's public release. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- Issue :
- 1152
- Database :
- Complementary Index
- Journal :
- Working Papers -- U.S. Federal Reserve Board's International Finance Discussion Papers
- Publication Type :
- Report
- Accession number :
- 111560182