Two-dimensional prognostic experiments for fast-flowing ice streams from the Academy of Sciences Ice Cap: future modeled histories obtained for the reference surface mass balance.

The prognostic experiments for fast-flowing ice streams on the southern side of the Academy of Sciences Ice Cap in the Komsomolets Island, Severnaya Zemlya archipelago, are implemented in this study. These experiments are based on inversions of basal friction coefficients using a two-dimensional flow-line thermo-coupled model and the Tikhonov's regularization method. The modeled ice temperature distributions in the cross-sections were obtained using the ice surface temperature histories that were inverted previously from the borehole temperature profiles derived at the Academy of Sciences Ice Cap. Input data included InSAR ice surface velocities, ice surface elevations, and ice thicknesses obtained from airborne measurements and the surface mass balance, were adopted from the prior investigations for the implementation of both the forward and inverse problems. The prognostic experiments reveal that both ice mass and ice stream extents decline for the reference time-independent surface mass balance. Specifically, the grounding line retreats (a) along the B–B' flow line from ~ 40 to ~ 30 km (the distance from the summit), (b) along the C–C' flow line from ~ 43 to ~ 37 km, and (c) along the D–D' flow line from ~ 41 to ~ 32 km considering a time period of 500 years and assuming time-independent surface mass balance. Ice flow velocities in the ice streams decrease with time and this trend results in the overall decline of the outgoing ice flux. Generally, the modeled histories are in agreement with observations of sea ice extent and thickness indicating a continual ice decline in the Arctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]