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An assessment of the foundational assumptions in high-resolution climate projections: the case of UKCP09.

Authors :
Frigg, Roman
Smith, Leonard
Stainforth, David
Source :
Synthese; Dec2015, Vol. 192 Issue 12, p3979-4008, 30p
Publication Year :
2015

Abstract

The United Kingdom Climate Impacts Programme's UKCP09 project makes high-resolution projections of the climate out to 2100 by post-processing the outputs of a large-scale global climate model. The aim of this paper is to describe and analyse the methodology used and then urge some caution. Given the acknowledged systematic, shared errors of all current climate models, treating model outputs as decision-relevant projections can be significantly misleading. In extrapolatory situations, such as projections of future climate change, there is little reason to expect that post-processing of model outputs can correct for the consequences of such errors. This casts doubt on our ability, today, to make trustworthy probabilistic projections at high resolution out to the end of the century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
00397857
Volume :
192
Issue :
12
Database :
Complementary Index
Journal :
Synthese
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
111984669
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11229-015-0739-8