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Potential Impacts of Future Warming and Land Use Changes on Intra-Urban Heat Exposure in Houston, Texas.
- Source :
- PLoS ONE; 2/10/2016, Vol. 11 Issue 2, p1-19, 19p
- Publication Year :
- 2016
-
Abstract
- Extreme heat events in the United States are projected to become more frequent and intense as a result of climate change. We investigated the individual and combined effects of land use and warming on the spatial and temporal distribution of daily minimum temperature (T<subscript>min</subscript>) and daily maximum heat index (HI<subscript>max</subscript>) during summer in Houston, Texas. Present-day (2010) and near-future (2040) parcel-level land use scenarios were embedded within 1-km resolution land surface model (LSM) simulations. For each land use scenario, LSM simulations were conducted for climatic scenarios representative of both the present-day and near-future periods. LSM simulations assuming present-day climate but 2040 land use patterns led to spatially heterogeneous temperature changes characterized by warmer conditions over most areas, with summer average increases of up to 1.5°C (T<subscript>min</subscript>) and 7.3°C (HI<subscript>max</subscript>) in some newly developed suburban areas compared to simulations using 2010 land use patterns. LSM simulations assuming present-day land use but a 1°C temperature increase above the urban canopy (consistent with warming projections for 2040) yielded more spatially homogeneous metropolitan-wide average increases of about 1°C (T<subscript>min</subscript>) and 2.5°C (HI<subscript>max</subscript>), respectively. LSM simulations assuming both land use and warming for 2040 led to summer average increases of up to 2.5°C (T<subscript>min</subscript>) and 8.3°C (HI<subscript>max</subscript>), with the largest increases in areas projected to be converted to residential, industrial and mixed-use types. Our results suggest that urbanization and climate change may significantly increase the average number of summer days that exceed current threshold temperatures for initiating a heat advisory for metropolitan Houston, potentially increasing population exposure to extreme heat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 19326203
- Volume :
- 11
- Issue :
- 2
- Database :
- Complementary Index
- Journal :
- PLoS ONE
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 112872266
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0148890