How to Eradicate Ebola?

The breakout of Ebola in 2014 triggered global panic. How to control and eradicate Ebola has become a universal concern ever since. First, we build an epidemic model SEIHCR (CT) that takes the special features of Ebola into consideration. These are treatment in hospital, infectious corpses, and intensified contact tracing. This model is developed from the traditional SEIR model. The model's results, whose parameters are determined using computer simulation, match perfectly with the data reported by WHO, suggesting the validity of our improved model. Second, we study pharmaceutical intervention thoroughly. The amount of medicine needed is based on the cumulative number of individuals. Results calculated from the WHO statistics and from our SEIHCR (CT) model show only minor discrepancy, further indicating the feasibility of our model. In designing the delivery system, we apply the weighted Fuzzy Means Clustering Algorithm and select 6 locations that should serve as medicine delivery centers for other cities. We optimize the delivery locations and determine each location's share. The average speed of manufacturing should be no less than 106.2 unit doses per day, and an increase in the manufacturing speed and the efficacy of medicine will reinforce the intervention effect. Third, other critical factors, safer treatment of corpses, and earlier identification/ isolation, also prove to be relevant. Results show that these interventions will help reduce the number of infections more rapidly. We then analyze the factors for control--and the time of eradication--of Ebola. For example, when the rate of the infectious being isolated is 33%- 40%, the disease can be successfully controlled. When the introduction time for treatment decreases from 210 to 145 days, the eradication of Ebola arrives over 200 days earlier. Finally, we select three parameters: the transmission rate, the incubation period and the fatality rate for sensitivity analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]