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The uncertainty of climate sensitivity and its implication for the Paris negotiation.
- Source :
- Sustainability Science; May2016, Vol. 11 Issue 3, p515-518, 4p
- Publication Year :
- 2016
-
Abstract
- Uncertainty of climate sensitivity is one of the critical issues that may affect climate response strategies. Whereas the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) was specified as 2-4.5 °C with the best estimate of 3 °C in the 4th Assessment Report of IPCC, it was revised to 1.5-4.5 °C in the 5th Assessment Report. The authors examined the impact of a difference in ECS assuming a best estimate of 2.5 °C, instead of 3 °C. The current pledges of several countries including the U.S., EU and China on emission reductions beyond 2020 are not on track for the 2 °C target with an ECS of 3 °C but are compatible with the target with an ECS of 2.5 °C. It is critically important for policymakers in Paris to know that they are in a position to make decisions under large uncertainty of ECS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 18624065
- Volume :
- 11
- Issue :
- 3
- Database :
- Complementary Index
- Journal :
- Sustainability Science
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 114512934
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-015-0339-z