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Forecasting Frequency-Corrected Electricity Demand to Support Frequency Control.
- Source :
- IEEE Transactions on Power Systems; May2016, Vol. 31 Issue 3, p1925-1932, 8p
- Publication Year :
- 2016
-
Abstract
- Electricity demand forecasts are needed for decisions regarding generation dispatch for lead times as short as just a few minutes. Imbalance between generation and demand causes deviation of the system frequency from its target, which in Great Britain is 50 Hz. This, in turn, causes a change in demand, due largely to motor loads. For Great Britain, the change is estimated to be 2.5% of demand per 1 Hz of frequency deviation from its target. This can be used to calculate the demand that would have occurred if frequency had been at 50 Hz. Modeling and forecasting the resulting frequency-corrected demand provides a better basis for dispatching generation. This paper evaluates methods for forecasting frequency-corrected demand up to 10 min ahead. We introduce an exponential smoothing model that, like the system operator's proposed Kalman filter approach, jointly models frequency and demand. We also evaluate a set of univariate methods applied directly to the series of frequency-corrected demand. These methods have not previously been considered for lead times less than 10 min. In our empirical analysis, the best results were produced by a seasonal exponential smoothing method applied directly to the series of frequency-corrected demand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 08858950
- Volume :
- 31
- Issue :
- 3
- Database :
- Complementary Index
- Journal :
- IEEE Transactions on Power Systems
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 114706759
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1109/TPWRS.2015.2444665