Temporal and Spatial Analysis of Fertility Decline in Taiwan.

The purpose of this article is threefold. First, it is to present the secular trends of fertility decline in Taiwan, pointing out that family-planning programmes began only after the birth rate had already shown a substantial decline. Secondly, it is to evaluate specifically the impact of family-planning programmes in the Taichung area, since its "success" has been widely proclaimed and led to an extension of the programme to the whole country. Thirdly, the authors argue that the dynamics of Taiwanese fertility changes may be related to declining infant mortality and accelerating educational development, and that these institutional effects, rather than the family planning programme, should be given credit for changes in fertility. The evidence shows that Taiwan's fertility was neither induced nor accelerated by the programme. This fact was especially obvious in Taichung city, where the action programmes were concentrated. Among the villages, the standardized partial regression coefficient of infant mortality was significant in many time periods. Yet, the effect of education on fertility was rarely significant, until the later periods. For the urban townships both infant mortality and education are found to be significant; however, educational level maybe more important in determining fertility than mortality decline.