Social and Economic Factors in Hong Kong's Fertility Decline.

Hypothetical calculations reveal that Hong Kong's fertility would have declined somewhat even without the availability of I.U.D.'s. Time series analysis of the crude birth rate shows that Hong Kong's fertility decline is mirrored by movements in educational opportunities for children and employment opportunities for women. This simple model is not appreciably improved by inclusion of a measure of family-planning activities. These calculations suggest, although they by no means prove, that (a) socio-economic variables were an important source of Hong Kong's fertility decline and (b) rather less weight than was previously thought can be attributed to the causal efficacy of family planning intervention. There is no question that the Hong Kong Family Planning Association was instrumental in meeting a substantial demand for fertility control. To what extent family-planning activities were also responsible for the creation of that demand, of which the rise is demonstrably associated with socio-economic changes, is an open question. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]