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Time-Varying Response of ENSO-Induced Tropical Pacific Rainfall to Global Warming in CMIP5 Models. Part I: Multimodel Ensemble Results.
- Source :
- Journal of Climate; Aug2016, Vol. 29 Issue 16, p5763-5778, 16p
- Publication Year :
- 2016
-
Abstract
- El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most important drivers of climatic variability on the global scale. Much of this variability arises in response to ENSO-driven changes in tropical Pacific rainfall. Previous research has shown that the ENSO-driven tropical Pacific rainfall variability can shift east and intensify in response to global warming, even if ENSO-related SST variability remains unchanged. Here, the twenty-first century changes in ENSO-driven tropical Pacific rainfall variability in 32 CMIP5 models forced under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario are examined, revealing that the pattern of changes in ENSO-driven rainfall is not only gradually enhanced but also shifts steadily eastward along with the global-mean temperature increase. Using a recently developed moisture budget decomposition method, it is shown that the projected changes in ENSO-driven rainfall variability in the tropical Pacific can be primarily attributed to a projected increase in both mean-state surface moisture and spatially relative changes in mean-state SST, defined as the departure of local SST changes from the tropical mean. The enhanced moisture increase enlarges the thermodynamic component of ENSO rainfall changes. The enhanced El Niño-like changes in mean-state SST steadily move the dynamic component of changes in ENSO-driven rainfall variability to the central-eastern Pacific, along with increasing global-mean temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 08948755
- Volume :
- 29
- Issue :
- 16
- Database :
- Complementary Index
- Journal :
- Journal of Climate
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 117740336
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0058.1