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Prediction of climate change effects on the runoff regime of a forested catchment in northern Iran.
- Source :
- Hydrological Sciences Journal/Journal des Sciences Hydrologiques; Dec2016, Vol. 61 Issue 15, p2729-2739, 11p
- Publication Year :
- 2016
-
Abstract
- The southern coast of the Caspian Sea in northern Iran is bordered by a mountain range with forested catchments which are susceptible to droughts and floods. This paper examines possible changes to runoff patterns from one of these catchments in response to climate change scenarios. The HEC-HMS rainfall–runoff model was used with downscaled future rainfall and temperature data from 13 global circulation models, and meteorological and hydrometrical data from the Casilian (or “Kassilian”) Catchment. Annual and seasonal predictions of runoff change for three future emissions scenarios were obtained, which suggest significantly higher spring rainfall with increased risk of flooding and significantly lower summer rainfall leading to a higher probability of drought. Flash floods arising from extreme rainfall may become more frequent, occurring at any time of year. These findings indicate a need for strategic planning of water resource management and mitigation measures for increasing flood hazards.EDITOR M.C. Acreman ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]
- Subjects :
- RUNOFF models
CLIMATE change forecasts
WATERSHEDS
WEATHER forecasting
RAINFALL
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 02626667
- Volume :
- 61
- Issue :
- 15
- Database :
- Complementary Index
- Journal :
- Hydrological Sciences Journal/Journal des Sciences Hydrologiques
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 118762454
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2016.1171870