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Estimating cardiovascular disease incidence from prevalence: a spreadsheet based model.
- Source :
- BMC Medical Research Methodology; 1/23/2017, Vol. 17, p1-12, 12p, 9 Charts, 2 Graphs
- Publication Year :
- 2017
-
Abstract
- <bold>Background: </bold>Disease incidence and prevalence are both core indicators of population health. Incidence is generally not as readily accessible as prevalence. Cohort studies and electronic health record systems are two major way to estimate disease incidence. The former is time-consuming and expensive; the latter is not available in most developing countries. Alternatively, mathematical models could be used to estimate disease incidence from prevalence.<bold>Methods: </bold>We proposed and validated a method to estimate the age-standardized incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD), with prevalence data from successive surveys and mortality data from empirical studies. Hallett's method designed for estimating HIV infections in Africa was modified to estimate the incidence of myocardial infarction (MI) in the U.S. population and incidence of heart disease in the Canadian population.<bold>Results: </bold>Model-derived estimates were in close agreement with observed incidence from cohort studies and population surveillance systems. This method correctly captured the trend in incidence given sufficient waves of cross-sectional surveys. The estimated MI declining rate in the U.S. population was in accordance with the literature. This method was superior to closed cohort, in terms of the estimating trend of population cardiovascular disease incidence.<bold>Conclusion: </bold>It is possible to estimate CVD incidence accurately at the population level from cross-sectional prevalence data. This method has the potential to be used for age- and sex- specific incidence estimates, or to be expanded to other chronic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Subjects :
- DISEASE incidence
MATHEMATICAL models
CARDIOVASCULAR diseases
MORTALITY
POPULATION
HEART disease diagnosis
HEART disease epidemiology
MYOCARDIAL infarction diagnosis
ALGORITHMS
LONGITUDINAL method
MYOCARDIAL infarction
PUBLIC health surveillance
RESEARCH evaluation
SURVIVAL analysis (Biometry)
THEORY
DISEASE prevalence
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 14712288
- Volume :
- 17
- Database :
- Complementary Index
- Journal :
- BMC Medical Research Methodology
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 120942393
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1186/s12874-016-0288-y