Global Economy : Prospects, Divergences and Risks.

The paper discusses various issues that are linked to global economic prospects including the divergences and the risks of various economies/countries associated with it. It makes an attempt to study major economies including both the advanced countries and the EMDEs (Emerging Markets and Developing Economies) and their global economic outlook, the divergences and the associated risks. The quantitative tools that have been used for this investigation are growth forecasts, kurtosis of real GDP growth, and exponential distribution of world growth output of major economies/countries. The study is based on data for 16 year, i.e., 2001 to 2016, which have been collected and collated from international published sources such as World Bank Global Economic Forecast Reports, UN/DESA etc. The concluding observations of the paper are that a complete assessment of global economic prospects requires baselines forecasts as well as an assessment of risks. Assessment of risks conveys the policy makers that a sense of uncertainty prevails at the time of forecasting which might vary with incoming data, past forecast performance and changing expectations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]