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Mortality effects of temperature changes in the United Kingdom.
- Source :
- Journal of Forecasting; Nov2017, Vol. 36 Issue 7, p824-841, 18p
- Publication Year :
- 2017
-
Abstract
- Temperature changes are known to affect the social and environmental determinants of health in various ways. Consequently, excess deaths as a result of extreme weather conditions may increase over the coming decades because of climate change. In this paper, the relationship between trends in mortality and trends in temperature change (as a proxy) is investigated using annual data and for specified (warm and cold) periods during the year in the UK. A thoughtful statistical analysis is implemented and a new stochastic, central mortality rate model is proposed. The new model encompasses the good features of the Lee and Carter ( Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1992, 87: 659-671) model and its recent extensions, and for the very first time includes an exogenous factor which is a temperature-related factor. The new model is shown to provide a significantly better-fitting performance and more interpretable forecasts. An illustrative example of pricing a life insurance product is provided and discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Subjects :
- GLOBAL temperature changes
ENVIRONMENTAL health
CLIMATE change
WEATHER forecasting
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 02776693
- Volume :
- 36
- Issue :
- 7
- Database :
- Complementary Index
- Journal :
- Journal of Forecasting
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 125686736
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2473