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Strong Relations Between ENSO and the Arctic Oscillation in the North American Multimodel Ensemble.
- Source :
- Geophysical Research Letters; Nov2017, Vol. 44 Issue 22, p11,654-11,662, 9p
- Publication Year :
- 2017
-
Abstract
- Arctic Oscillation (AO) variability impacts climate anomalies over the middle to high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Recently, state-of-the-art climate prediction models have proved capable of skillfully predicting the AO during the winter, revealing a previously unrealized source of climate predictability. Hindcasts from the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) show that the seasonal, ensemble mean 200 hPa AO index is skillfully predicted up to 7 months in advance and that this skill, especially at longer leads, is coincident with previously unknown and strong relations ( r > 0.9) with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The NMME is a seasonal prediction system that comprises eight models and up to 100 members with forecasts out to 12 months. Observed ENSO-AO correlations are within the spread of the NMME member correlations, but the majority of member correlations are stronger than observed, consistent with too high predictability in the model, or overconfidence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 00948276
- Volume :
- 44
- Issue :
- 22
- Database :
- Complementary Index
- Journal :
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 126899537
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074854