THE PITFALLS OF POST-FACTUM SOCIOLOGICAL INTERPRETATION: A CLASSROOM DEMONSTRATION.

In this paper the author presents a classroom technique for demonstrating the post-factum interpretation problem. In sociology implications of this adage can be found in discussions of pitfalls of post-factum sociological interpretation. The essence of such discussions is that theories always can be molded to fit the patterns we find in the data. My intent in this paper is to present a classroom technique for demonstrating the post-factum interpretation problem. In introductory sociology classes I let the issue rest. In my research courses, however, I use this exercise as one of my starting points to introduce the concept of spuriousness and the problem of establishing causality in nonexperimental studies. That is, I teach advanced students how to test for spuriousness. Post-factum interpretations of those data patterns which maintain themselves after the introduction of control variables will gain in credibility. In addition, post-factum interpretations always will have implications for other relationships in one's data set. If further analysis should realize these relationships, one's post-factum interpretation will gain further credibility. Of course, the end result of such a process can lead sometimes to the reformulation and clarification of our interpretations of social reality and of existing social theories.